Saturday 15 August, 2020

Cayman National Weather Service ups 2020 hurricane predictions

Image Source: NOAA

Image Source: NOAA

The Cayman Islands National Weather Service has increased their prediction for this year’s hurricane season following new information from the Colorado State University.

Colorado State University updated its hurricane forecast, increasing its forecast. The group is now predicting a very active 2020 hurricane season.

The university's Tropical Weather & Climate Research team issues hurricane forecasts every year and updates them as more information becomes available. This year the group initially predicted an above-average season with 16 named storms. That forecast now calls for 20 named storms (including the 5 that have already formed), 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, category 3 or higher.

This updated forecast is based on a statistical model that takes in data from past hurricane seasons. Current environmental conditions are also conducive for tropical development.

Most of the eastern Atlantic is warmer than normal, and warmer temperatures are associated with more active Atlantic hurricane seasons. Warm ocean temperatures are the main fuel for tropical systems.

Also, weak La Nina conditions could form later this Summer through the Fall. Colorado State meteorologist, Philip Klotzbach, said in a tweet that eastern Pacific temperatures remain cooler than normal limiting wind shear. Wind shear often limits tropical development.

So far we've had 5 named storms in the Atlantic. Two storms formed for before May, the official start of hurricane season. The latest storm Edouard set the record to the 5th earliest named storm. This is the fastest start to Hurricane Season on record.

According to the Cayman Islands National Weather Service, an average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

The latest prediction from CSU came out on July 7.

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