Tuesday 27 October, 2020

Hurricane Delta still moving inland over southwestern Louisiana

Hurricane conditions and a life-threatening storm surge are still occurring within the warning area as Delta continues to move inland over southwestern Louisiana.

A Hurricane Warning continues for High Island, Texas to Morgan City, LA. Hurricane conditions are occurring within the warning area and should continue during the next few hours.

The Tropical Storm Warning west of High Island Texas has been discontinued, however, a Tropical Storm Warning continues from east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. 

Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the tropical storm warning areas through early Saturday.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Sabine Pass, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana, including Calcasieu Lake. A Storm Surge Warning continues from Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River, LA, including Vermilion Bay and Lake Borgne. 

The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide.
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay, 6-10 ft 
Cameron, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA, 4-6 ft
- Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA, 3-5 ft
- Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River, 2-4 ft
- Lake Borgne, 2-4 ft
- Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas, 1-3 ft
- Mouth of the Pearl River to the AL/FL state line, including Mobile - Bay 1-3 ft
- Port O'Connor, TX to Cameron, LA including Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake, 1-3 ft

A few tornadoes are possible tonight over southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, and over Alabama, central and eastern Mississippi, southern Tennessee and the western Florida Panhandle on Saturday.

At 10pm CDT, the centre of Hurricane Delta was located inland over Louisiana about 70 miles (110 km) northeast of Cameron. Delta is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). 

On the forecast track, the centre of Delta should move across central and northeastern Louisiana tonight and Saturday morning. After that time, the system is forecast to move across northern Mississippi and into the Tennessee Valley.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the centre and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km).

Continued weakening is forecast to occur, and Delta should become a tropical storm, and then a tropical depression, on Saturday.

Through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from the southwest into central Louisiana. 

These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to major river flooding. For extreme eastern Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. 

These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding.

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